Certain diseases transmitted from animals to humans could kill 12 times as many people in 2050 than they did in 2020, researchers have claimed.
Epidemics caused by zoonotic diseases—also known as spillovers—could be more frequent in the future due to climate change and deforestation, they warned.
The team’s analysis looked at historic trends for four particular viral pathogens.
These were filoviruses, which include Ebola virus and Marburg virus, SARS Coronavirus 1, Nipah virus, and Machupo virus, which causes Bolivian hemorrhagic fever.
The study did not include COVID-19, which caused the global pandemic in 2020 and is likely to have originated in bats.
It looked at more than 3,150 outbreaks between 1963 and 2019, identifying 75 spillover events in 24 countries.
The database covered epidemics reported by the World Health Organization, outbreaks occurring since 1963 that killed 50 or more people, and historically significant events including the flu pandemics of 1918 and 1957.
The events caused 17,232 deaths, with 15,771 caused by filoviruses and occurring mostly in Africa.
Researchers said epidemics have been increasing by almost 5% every year between 1963 and 2019, with deaths up by 9%.
“If these annual rates of increase continue, we would expect the analyzed pathogens to cause four times the number of spillover events and 12 times the number of deaths in 2050 than in 2020,” they added.
Researchers also suggested the figures are likely to be an underestimate due to the strict inclusion criteria for the pathogens in the analysis and the exclusion of COVID-19.
They said the evaluation of evidence suggests recent epidemics sparked by zoonotic spillovers “are not an aberration or random cluster” but follow “a multi-decade trend in which spillover-driven epidemics have become both larger and more frequent.”
The team added that “urgent action is needed to address a large and growing risk to global health” based on historical trends.
The findings of the study have been published in the journal BMJ Global Health.
News
Study Shows Brain Signals Only Matter if They Arrive on Time
Signals are processed only if they reach the brain during brief receptive cycles. This timing mechanism explains how attention filters information and may inform therapies and brain-inspired technologies. It has long been recognized that [...]
Does Space-Time Really Exist?
Is time something that flows — or just an illusion? Exploring space-time as either a fixed “block universe” or a dynamic fabric reveals deeper mysteries about existence, change, and the very nature of reality. [...]
Unlocking hidden soil microbes for new antibiotics
Most bacteria cannot be cultured in the lab-and that's been bad news for medicine. Many of our frontline antibiotics originated from microbes, yet as antibiotic resistance spreads and drug pipelines run dry, the soil [...]
By working together, cells can extend their senses beyond their direct environment
The story of the princess and the pea evokes an image of a highly sensitive young royal woman so refined, she can sense a pea under a stack of mattresses. When it comes to [...]
Overworked Brain Cells May Hold the Key to Parkinson’s
Scientists at Gladstone Institutes uncovered a surprising reason why dopamine-producing neurons, crucial for smooth body movements, die in Parkinson’s disease. In mice, when these neurons were kept overactive for weeks, they began to falter, [...]
Old tires find new life: Rubber particles strengthen superhydrophobic coatings against corrosion
Development of highly robust superhydrophobic anti-corrosion coating using recycled tire rubber particles. Superhydrophobic materials offer a strategy for developing marine anti-corrosion materials due to their low solid-liquid contact area and low surface energy. However, [...]
This implant could soon allow you to read minds
Mind reading: Long a science fiction fantasy, today an increasingly concrete scientific goal. Researchers at Stanford University have succeeded in decoding internal language in real time thanks to a brain implant and artificial intelligence. [...]
A New Weapon Against Cancer: Cold Plasma Destroys Hidden Tumor Cells
Cold plasma penetrates deep into tumors and attacks cancer cells. Short-lived molecules were identified as key drivers. Scientists at the Leibniz Institute for Plasma Science and Technology (INP), working with colleagues from Greifswald University Hospital and [...]
This Common Sleep Aid May Also Protect Your Brain From Alzheimer’s
Lemborexant and similar sleep medications show potential for treating tau-related disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease. New research from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis shows that a commonly used sleep medication can restore normal sleep patterns and [...]
Sugar-Coated Nanoparticles Boost Cancer Drug Efficacy
A team of researchers at the University of Mississippi has discovered that coating cancer treatment carrying nanoparticles in a sugar-like material increases their treatment efficacy. They reported their findings in Advanced Healthcare Materials. Over a tenth of breast [...]
Nanoparticle-Based Vaccine Shows Promise in Fighting Cancer
In a study published in OncoImmunology, researchers from the German Cancer Research Center and Heidelberg University have created a therapeutic vaccine that mobilizes the immune system to target cancer cells. The researchers demonstrated that virus peptides combined [...]
Quantitative imaging method reveals how cells rapidly sort and transport lipids
Lipids are difficult to detect with light microscopy. Using a new chemical labeling strategy, a Dresden-based team led by André Nadler at the Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology and Genetics (MPI-CBG) and [...]
Ancient DNA reveals cause of world’s first recorded pandemic
Scientists have confirmed that the Justinian Plague, the world’s first recorded pandemic, was caused by Yersinia pestis, the same bacterium behind the Black Death. Dating back some 1,500 years and long described in historical texts but [...]
“AI Is Not Intelligent at All” – Expert Warns of Worldwide Threat to Human Dignity
Opaque AI systems risk undermining human rights and dignity. Global cooperation is needed to ensure protection. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has changed how people interact, but it also poses a global risk to human [...]
Nanomotors: Where Are They Now?
First introduced in 2004, nanomotors have steadily advanced from a scientific curiosity to a practical technology with wide-ranging applications. This article explores the key developments, recent innovations, and major uses of nanomotors today. A [...]
Study Finds 95% of Tested Beers Contain Toxic “Forever Chemicals”
Researchers found PFAS in 95% of tested beers, with the highest levels linked to contaminated local water sources. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), better known as forever chemicals, are gaining notoriety for their ability [...]
