Infectious diseases such as COVID-19 can spread rapidly across the globe. Models that can predict how such diseases spread will strengthen national surveillance systems and improve public health decision-making.
A widely used modeling technique involves dividing the population into compartments, such as susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R), in what is known as the SIR model. This approach models the rates of change that describe the movement of individuals from one compartment to another.
KAUST researchers, led by Paula Moraga, integrated SIR compartment modeling in time and a point process modeling approach in space–time, while also taking into account age-specific contact patterns. To do this, they used a two-step framework that allowed them to model data on infectious locations over time for different age groups.
"It also accounts for different age classes so we can treat these groups separately, resulting in finer control over the number of infectious cases."
Their approach paid off. In a simulation study to assess the model's performance, and in a case study of COVID-19 cases in Cali, Colombia, the model performed better when making predictions and provided similar results for past time points, compared with models commonly used in predictive modeling.
"The model's features can help decision-makers to identify high-risk locations and vulnerable populations to develop better strategies for disease control," says Amaral.
It also can be used with any infectious disease that fits the compartment model assumptions, such as influenza. Furthermore, the model can account for different age groups and their associated contact patterns, meaning it allows more detailed conclusions about where, when, and to which population group decision-makers should focus their resources if they want to control disease spread.
"In future work, we might extend such an approach and use different temporal models to replace the SIR model. This would allow us to account for different epidemic dynamics and expand the number of scenarios that the model can be used for," says Amaral.
"Finally, to improve the model's predictive capabilities, we might work on developing ensemble approaches that combine a number of predictions from a number of different models and also account for potential time delays in collecting data," he adds.
Moraga says the model's performance demonstrates the importance of quality and detailed data by location, time, and population group to understand infectious disease dynamics while highlighting the need to strengthen national surveillance systems to improve public health decision-making.
News
New nanomedicine wipes out leukemia in animal study
In a promising advance for cancer treatment, Northwestern University scientists have re-engineered the molecular structure of a common chemotherapy drug, making it dramatically more soluble and effective and less toxic. In the new study, [...]
Mystery Solved: Scientists Find Cause for Unexplained, Deadly Diseases
A study reveals that a protein called RPA is essential for maintaining chromosome stability by stimulating telomerase. New findings from the University of Wisconsin-Madison suggest that problems with a key protein that helps preserve chromosome stability [...]
Nanotech Blocks Infection and Speed Up Chronic Wound Recovery
A new nanotech-based formulation using quercetin and omega-3 fatty acids shows promise in halting bacterial biofilms and boosting skin cell repair. Scientists have developed a nanotechnology-based treatment to fight bacterial biofilms in wound infections. The [...]
Researchers propose five key questions for effective adoption of AI in clinical practice
While Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be a powerful tool that physicians can use to help diagnose their patients and has great potential to improve accuracy, efficiency and patient safety, it has its drawbacks. It [...]
Advancements and clinical translation of intelligent nanodrugs for breast cancer treatment
A comprehensive review in "Biofunct. Mater." meticulously details the most recent advancements and clinical translation of intelligent nanodrugs for breast cancer treatment. This paper presents an exhaustive overview of subtype-specific nanostrategies, the clinical benefits [...]
It’s Not “All in Your Head”: Scientists Develop Revolutionary Blood Test for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome
A 96% accurate blood test for ME/CFS could transform diagnosis and pave the way for future long COVID detection. Researchers from the University of East Anglia and Oxford Biodynamics have created a highly accurate [...]
How Far Can the Body Go? Scientists Find the Ultimate Limit of Human Endurance
Even the most elite endurance athletes can’t outrun biology. A new study finds that humans hit a metabolic ceiling at about 2.5 times their resting energy burn. When ultra-runners take on races that last [...]
World’s Rivers “Overdosing” on Human Antibiotics, Study Finds
Researchers estimate that approximately 8,500 tons of antibiotics enter river systems each year after passing through the human body and wastewater treatment processes. Rivers spanning millions of kilometers across the globe are contaminated with [...]
Yale Scientists Solve a Century-Old Brain Wave Mystery
Yale scientists traced gamma brain waves to thalamus-cortex interactions. The discovery could reveal how brain rhythms shape perception and disease. For more than a century, scientists have observed rhythmic waves of synchronized neuronal activity [...]
Can introducing peanuts early prevent allergies? Real-world data confirms it helps
New evidence from a large U.S. primary care network shows that early peanut introduction, endorsed in 2015 and 2017 guidelines, was followed by a marked decline in clinician-diagnosed peanut and overall food allergies among [...]
Nanoparticle blueprints reveal path to smarter medicines
Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) are the delivery vehicles of modern medicine, carrying cancer drugs, gene therapies and vaccines into cells. Until recently, many scientists assumed that all LNPs followed more or less the same blueprint, [...]
How nanomedicine and AI are teaming up to tackle neurodegenerative diseases
When I first realized the scale of the challenge posed by neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), I felt simultaneously humbled and motivated. These disorders are not caused [...]
Self-Organizing Light Could Transform Computing and Communications
USC engineers have demonstrated a new kind of optical device that lets light organize its own route using the principles of thermodynamics. Instead of relying on switches or digital control, the light finds its own [...]
Groundbreaking New Way of Measuring Blood Pressure Could Save Thousands of Lives
A new method that improves the accuracy of interpreting blood pressure measurements taken at the ankle could be vital for individuals who are unable to have their blood pressure measured on the arm. A newly developed [...]
Scientist tackles key roadblock for AI in drug discovery
The drug development pipeline is a costly and lengthy process. Identifying high-quality "hit" compounds—those with high potency, selectivity, and favorable metabolic properties—at the earliest stages is important for reducing cost and accelerating the path [...]
Nanoplastics with environmental coatings can sneak past the skin’s defenses
Plastic is ubiquitous in the modern world, and it's notorious for taking a long time to completely break down in the environment - if it ever does. But even without breaking down completely, plastic [...]
