As we plunge head-on into the game-changing dynamic of general artificial intelligence, observers are weighing in on just how huge an impact it will have on global societies. Will it drive explosive economic growth as some economists project, or are such claims unrealistically optimistic?
Two researchers from Epoch, a research group evaluating the progression of artificial intelligence and its potential impacts, decided to explore arguments for and against the likelihood that innovation ushered in by AI will lead to explosive growth comparable to the Industrial Revolution of the 18th and 19th centuries.
The seven members of the Epoch team have backgrounds in machine learning, statistics, economics, forecasting, physics and software engineering.
While they concluded that “explosive growth seems plausible,” they were quick to add that “high confidence” in rapid development “seems currently unwarranted.”
Epoch Associate Director Tamay Besiroglu and staff researcher Ege Erdil have explained their conclusions in a paper, “Explosive Growth from AI Automation: A Review of the Arguments,” published Sept. 20 on the preprint server arXiv.
They stated that many observers believe AI can drive explosive growth of “an order of magnitude faster than current rates” and lead to “super-exponential growth.” But they caution that there will be obstacles.
First, governmental regulations will likely be swift and possibly extreme as concerns grow over ethics, privacy and risk.
“Fear or reluctance regarding powerful new technologies, concerns over… intellectual property leading to a shortage of training data and unwillingness to let AI systems perform tasks that can be automated without human supervision,” due to legal concerns are factors that may tamp down the economic impact of AI, they said.
But after weighing the concerns against potential benefits of AI, the authors conclude it is “unlikely that regulation of the training and deployment of AI will block explosive growth.”
“The potential value of AI deployment could be immense,” the authors said, “with the prospect of increasing output by several orders of magnitude. Consequently, this would likely create formidable disincentives for imposing restrictions.”
Another potential obstacle to the rapid adoption of AI applications is fear of their potential unreliability. They cite as an example the tendency of AI to “hallucinate,” or generate responses that are blatantly false. A recent study found a chatbot sourced its information to research papers that in fact did not exist.
Here, again, the researchers said that improvements in reliability and incorporating safety measures such as human oversight will eventually lead to greater trust in AI operations.
“Overall, our assessment is that this argument is most likely not going to block explosive growth, but its influence cannot be ruled out,” they said.
They also ruled out other obstacles as major factors deterring the acceptance of AI, such as human preferences for human-produced goods and physical bottlenecks in production.
In the end, their outlook for explosive growth may best be described as “cautious optimism.”
“We conclude that explosive growth seems plausible with AI capable of broadly substituting for human labor,” they said.
News
Scientists Discover a New Form of Ice That Shouldn’t Exist
Researchers at the European XFEL and DESY are investigating unusual forms of ice that can exist at room temperature when subjected to extreme pressure. Ice comes in many forms, even when made of nothing but water [...]
Nobel-winning, tiny ‘sponge crystals’ with an astonishing amount of inner space
The 2025 Nobel Prize in chemistry was awarded to Richard Robson, Susumu Kitagawa and Omar Yaghi on Oct. 8, 2025, for the development of metal-organic frameworks, or MOFs, which are tunable crystal structures with extremely [...]
Harnessing Green-Synthesized Nanoparticles for Water Purification
A new review reveals how plant- and microbe-derived nanoparticles can power next-gen water disinfection, delivering cleaner, safer water without the environmental cost of traditional treatments. A recent review published in Nanomaterials highlights the potential of green-synthesized nanomaterials (GSNMs) in [...]
Brainstem damage found to be behind long-lasting effects of severe Covid-19
Damage to the brainstem - the brain's 'control center' - is behind long-lasting physical and psychiatric effects of severe Covid-19 infection, a study suggests. Using ultra-high-resolution scanners that can see the living brain in [...]
CT scan changes over one year predict outcomes in fibrotic lung disease
Researchers at National Jewish Health have shown that subtle increases in lung scarring, detected by an artificial intelligence-based tool on CT scans taken one year apart, are associated with disease progression and survival in [...]
AI Spots Hidden Signs of Disease Before Symptoms Appear
Researchers suggest that examining the inner workings of cells more closely could help physicians detect diseases earlier and more accurately match patients with effective therapies. Researchers at McGill University have created an artificial intelligence tool capable of uncovering [...]
Breakthrough Blood Test Detects Head and Neck Cancer up to 10 Years Before Symptoms
Mass General Brigham’s HPV-DeepSeek test enables much earlier cancer detection through a blood sample, creating a new opportunity for screening HPV-related head and neck cancers. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for about 70% of [...]
Study of 86 chikungunya outbreaks reveals unpredictability in size and severity
The symptoms come on quickly—acute fever, followed by debilitating joint pain that can last for months. Though rarely fatal, the chikungunya virus, a mosquito-borne illness, can be particularly severe for high-risk individuals, including newborns and older [...]
Tiny Fat Messengers May Link Obesity to Alzheimer’s Plaque Buildup
Summary: A groundbreaking study reveals how obesity may drive Alzheimer’s disease through tiny messengers called extracellular vesicles released from fat tissue. These vesicles carry lipids that alter how quickly amyloid-β plaques form, a hallmark of [...]
Ozone exposure weakens lung function and reshapes the oral microbiome
Scientists reveal that short-term ozone inhalation doesn’t just harm the lungs; it reshapes the microbes in your mouth, with men facing the greatest risks. Ozone is a toxic environmental pollutant with wide-ranging effects on [...]
New study reveals molecular basis of Long COVID brain fog
Even though many years have passed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of infection with SARS-CoV-2 are not completely understood. This is especially true for Long COVID, a chronic condition that [...]
Scientists make huge Parkinson’s breakthrough as they discover ‘protein trigger’
Scientists have, for the first time, directly visualised the protein clusters in the brain believed to trigger Parkinson's disease, bringing them one step closer to potential treatments. Parkinson's is a progressive incurable neurological disorder [...]
Alpha amino acids’ stability may explain their role as early life’s protein building blocks
A new study from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sheds light on one of life's greatest mysteries: why biology is based on a very specific set [...]
3D bioprinting advances enable creation of artificial blood vessels with layered structures
To explore possible treatments for various diseases, either animal models or human cell cultures are usually used first; however, animal models do not always mimic human diseases well, and cultures are far removed [...]
Drinking less water daily spikes your stress hormone
Researchers discovered that people who don’t drink enough water react with sharper cortisol spikes during stressful events, explaining why poor hydration is tied to long-term health risks. A recent study in the Journal of Applied [...]
Nanomed Trials Surge Highlighting Need for Standardization
Researchers have identified over 4,000 nanomedical clinical trials in progress now, highlighting rapid growth in the field and the need for a standardized lexicon to support clinical translation and collaboration. Nanotechnology is the science of [...]
