As we plunge head-on into the game-changing dynamic of general artificial intelligence, observers are weighing in on just how huge an impact it will have on global societies. Will it drive explosive economic growth as some economists project, or are such claims unrealistically optimistic?
Two researchers from Epoch, a research group evaluating the progression of artificial intelligence and its potential impacts, decided to explore arguments for and against the likelihood that innovation ushered in by AI will lead to explosive growth comparable to the Industrial Revolution of the 18th and 19th centuries.
The seven members of the Epoch team have backgrounds in machine learning, statistics, economics, forecasting, physics and software engineering.
While they concluded that “explosive growth seems plausible,” they were quick to add that “high confidence” in rapid development “seems currently unwarranted.”
Epoch Associate Director Tamay Besiroglu and staff researcher Ege Erdil have explained their conclusions in a paper, “Explosive Growth from AI Automation: A Review of the Arguments,” published Sept. 20 on the preprint server arXiv.
They stated that many observers believe AI can drive explosive growth of “an order of magnitude faster than current rates” and lead to “super-exponential growth.” But they caution that there will be obstacles.
First, governmental regulations will likely be swift and possibly extreme as concerns grow over ethics, privacy and risk.
“Fear or reluctance regarding powerful new technologies, concerns over… intellectual property leading to a shortage of training data and unwillingness to let AI systems perform tasks that can be automated without human supervision,” due to legal concerns are factors that may tamp down the economic impact of AI, they said.
But after weighing the concerns against potential benefits of AI, the authors conclude it is “unlikely that regulation of the training and deployment of AI will block explosive growth.”
“The potential value of AI deployment could be immense,” the authors said, “with the prospect of increasing output by several orders of magnitude. Consequently, this would likely create formidable disincentives for imposing restrictions.”
Another potential obstacle to the rapid adoption of AI applications is fear of their potential unreliability. They cite as an example the tendency of AI to “hallucinate,” or generate responses that are blatantly false. A recent study found a chatbot sourced its information to research papers that in fact did not exist.
Here, again, the researchers said that improvements in reliability and incorporating safety measures such as human oversight will eventually lead to greater trust in AI operations.
“Overall, our assessment is that this argument is most likely not going to block explosive growth, but its influence cannot be ruled out,” they said.
They also ruled out other obstacles as major factors deterring the acceptance of AI, such as human preferences for human-produced goods and physical bottlenecks in production.
In the end, their outlook for explosive growth may best be described as “cautious optimism.”
“We conclude that explosive growth seems plausible with AI capable of broadly substituting for human labor,” they said.
News
How the FDA opens the door to risky chemicals in America’s food supply
Lining the shelves of American supermarkets are food products with chemicals linked to health concerns. To a great extent, the FDA allows food companies to determine for themselves whether their ingredients and additives are [...]
Superbug crisis could get worse, killing nearly 40 million people by 2050
The number of lives lost around the world due to infections that are resistant to the medications intended to treat them could increase nearly 70% by 2050, a new study projects, further showing the [...]
How Can Nanomaterials Be Programmed for Different Applications?
Nanomaterials are no longer just small—they are becoming smart. Across fields like medicine, electronics, energy, and materials science, researchers are now programming nanomaterials to behave in intentional, responsive ways. These advanced materials are designed [...]
Microplastics Are Invading Our Arteries, and It Could Be Increasing Your Risk of Stroke
Higher levels of micronanoplastics were found in carotid artery plaque, especially in people with stroke symptoms, suggesting a potential new risk factor. People with plaque buildup in the arteries of their neck have been [...]
Gene-editing therapy shows early success in fighting advanced gastrointestinal cancers
Researchers at the University of Minnesota have completed a first-in-human clinical trial testing a CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing technique to help the immune system fight advanced gastrointestinal (GI) cancers. The results, recently published in The Lancet Oncology, show encouraging [...]
Engineered extracellular vesicles facilitate delivery of advanced medicines
Graphic abstract of the development of VEDIC and VFIC systems for high efficiency intracellular protein delivery in vitro and in vivo. Credit: Nature Communications (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59377-y. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59377-y Researchers at Karolinska Institutet have developed a technique [...]
Brain-computer interface allows paralyzed users to customize their sense of touch
University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine scientists are one step closer to developing a brain-computer interface, or BCI, that allows people with tetraplegia to restore their lost sense of touch. While exploring a digitally [...]
Scientists Flip a Gut Virus “Kill Switch” – Expose a Hidden Threat in Antibiotic Treatment
Scientists have long known that bacteriophages, viruses that infect bacteria, live in our gut, but exactly what they do has remained elusive. Researchers developed a clever mouse model that can temporarily eliminate these phages [...]
Enhanced Antibacterial Polylactic Acid-Curcumin Nanofibers for Wound Dressing
Background Wound healing is a complex physiological process that can be compromised by infection and impaired tissue regeneration. Conventional dressings, typically made from natural fibers such as cotton or linen, offer limited functionality. Nanofiber [...]
Global Nanomaterial Regulation: A Country-by-Country Comparison
Nanomaterials are materials with at least one dimension smaller than 100 nanometres (about 100,000 times thinner than a human hair). Because of their tiny size, they have unique properties that can be useful in [...]
Pandemic Potential: Scientists Discover 3 Hotspots of Deadly Emerging Disease in the US
Virginia Tech researchers discovered six new rodent carriers of hantavirus and identified U.S. hotspots, highlighting the virus’s adaptability and the impact of climate and ecology on its spread. Hantavirus recently drew public attention following reports [...]
Studies detail high rates of long COVID among healthcare, dental workers
Researchers have estimated approximately 8% of Americas have ever experienced long COVID, or lasting symptoms, following an acute COVID-19 infection. Now two recent international studies suggest that the percentage is much higher among healthcare workers [...]
Melting Arctic Ice May Unleash Ancient Deadly Diseases, Scientists Warn
Melting Arctic ice increases human and animal interactions, raising the risk of infectious disease spread. Researchers urge early intervention and surveillance. Climate change is opening new pathways for the spread of infectious diseases such [...]
Scientists May Have Found a Secret Weapon To Stop Pancreatic Cancer Before It Starts
Researchers at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory have found that blocking the FGFR2 and EGFR genes can stop early-stage pancreatic cancer from progressing, offering a promising path toward prevention. Pancreatic cancer is expected to become [...]
Breakthrough Drug Restores Vision: Researchers Successfully Reverse Retinal Damage
Blocking the PROX1 protein allowed KAIST researchers to regenerate damaged retinas and restore vision in mice. Vision is one of the most important human senses, yet more than 300 million people around the world are at [...]
Differentiating cancerous and healthy cells through motion analysis
Researchers from Tokyo Metropolitan University have found that the motion of unlabeled cells can be used to tell whether they are cancerous or healthy. They observed malignant fibrosarcoma [...]
