Summary: A new mathematical model incorporates fear, both of infection and vaccination, to better understand how pandemics occur in multiple waves of infection, as we are witnessing with COVID-19.
Source: NYU
A new mathematical model for predicting infectious disease outbreaks incorporates fear — both of disease and of vaccines — to better understand how pandemics can occur in multiple waves of infections, like those we are seeing with COVID-19.
The “Triple Contagion” model of disease and fears, developed by researchers at NYU School of Global Public Health, is published in the Journal of The Royal Society Interface.
Human behaviors like social distancing (which suppresses spread) and vaccine refusal (which promotes it) have shaped the dynamics of epidemics for centuries. Yet, traditional epidemic models have overwhelmingly ignored human behavior and the fears that drive it.
“Emotions like fear can override rational behavior and prompt unconstructive behavioral change,” said Joshua Epstein, professor of epidemiology at NYU School of Global Public Health, founding director of the NYU Agent-Based Modeling Laboratory, and the study’s lead author. “Fear of a contagious disease can shift how susceptible individuals behave; they may take action to protect themselves, but abandon those actions prematurely as fear decays.”
For instance, the fear of catching a virus like SARS-CoV-2 can cause healthy people to self-isolate at home or wear masks, suppressing spread. But, because spread is reduced, the fear can evaporate — leading people to stop isolating or wearing masks too early, when there are still many infected people circulating. This pours fuel — in the form of susceptible people — onto the embers, and a new wave explodes.
Likewise, fear of COVID-19 has motivated millions of people to get vaccinated. But as vaccines suppress spread and with it the fear of disease, people may fear the vaccine more than they do the infection and forego vaccination, again producing disease resurgence.
For the first time, the “Triple Contagion” model couples these psychological dynamics to the disease dynamics, uncovering new behavioral mechanisms for pandemic persistence and successive waves of infection.
“If fear of COVID-19 exceeds fear of the vaccine, it may spur vaccination and therefore suppress the virus, a trend we saw in the U.S. this spring as millions of Americans were vaccinated and cases dropped,” said Epstein.
“But if people think the vaccine is scarier than the disease — whether they are skeptical about how serious COVID-19 is or because of baseless fears of the vaccine fueled by misinformation — our model shows that people avoid vaccines and a new disease cycle can grow. We’re seeing this play out in real time in regions with lower rates of vaccination, where the Delta variant is rapidly spreading and cases are surging,” added Epstein.
![](https://www.nanoappsmedical.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/spacer.jpg)
News
The Silent Battle Within: How Your Organs Choose Between Mom and Dad’s Genes
Research reveals that selective expression of maternal or paternal X chromosomes varies by organ, driven by cellular competition. A new study published today (July 26) in Nature Genetics by the Lymphoid Development Group at the MRC [...]
Study identifies genes increasing risk of severe COVID-19
Whether or not a person becomes seriously ill with COVID-19 depends, among other things, on genetic factors. With this in mind, researchers from the University Hospital Bonn (UKB) and the University of Bonn, in [...]
Small regions of the brain can take micro-naps while the rest of the brain is awake and vice versa
Sleep and wake: They're totally distinct states of being that define the boundaries of our daily lives. For years, scientists have measured the difference between these instinctual brain processes by observing brain waves, with [...]
Redefining Consciousness: Small Regions of the Brain Can Take Micro-Naps While the Rest of the Brain Is Awake
The study broadly reveals how fast brain waves, previously overlooked, establish fundamental patterns of sleep and wakefulness. Scientists have developed a new method to analyze sleep and wake states by detecting ultra-fast neuronal activity [...]
AI Reveals Health Secrets Through Facial Temperature Mapping
Researchers have found that different facial temperatures correlate with chronic illnesses like diabetes and high blood pressure, and these can be detected using AI with thermal cameras. They highlight the potential of this technology [...]
Breakthrough in aging research: Blocking IL-11 extends lifespan and improves health in mice
In a recent study published in the journal Nature, a team of researchers used murine models and various pharmacological and genetic approaches to examine whether pro-inflammatory signaling involving interleukin (IL)-11, which activates signaling molecules such [...]
Promise for a universal influenza vaccine: Scientists validate theory using 1918 flu virus
New research led by Oregon Health & Science University reveals a promising approach to developing a universal influenza vaccine—a so-called "one and done" vaccine that confers lifetime immunity against an evolving virus. The study, [...]
New Projects Aim To Pioneer the Future of Neuroscience
One study will investigate the alterations in brain activity at the cellular level caused by psilocybin, the psychoactive substance found in “magic mushrooms.” How do neurons respond to the effects of magic mushrooms? What [...]
Decoding the Decline: Scientific Insights Into Long COVID’s Retreat
Research indicates a significant reduction in long COVID risk, largely due to vaccination and the virus’s evolution. The study analyzes data from over 441,000 veterans, showing lower rates of long COVID among vaccinated individuals compared [...]
Silicon Transformed: A Breakthrough in Laser Nanofabrication
A new method enables precise nanofabrication inside silicon using spatial light modulation and laser pulses, creating advanced nanostructures for potential use in electronics and photonics. Silicon, the cornerstone of modern electronics, photovoltaics, and photonics, [...]
Caught in the actinium: New research could help design better cancer treatments
The element actinium was first discovered at the turn of the 20th century, but even now, nearly 125 years later, researchers still don't have a good grasp on the metal's chemistry. That's because actinium [...]
Innovative Light-Controlled Drugs Could Revolutionize Neuropathic Pain Treatment
A team of researchers from the Institute for Bioengineering of Catalonia (IBEC) has developed light-activated derivatives of the anti-epileptic drug carbamazepine to treat neuropathic pain. Light can be harnessed to target drugs to specific [...]
Green Gold: Turning E-Waste Into a Treasure Trove of Rare Earth Metals
Scientists are developing a process inspired by nature that efficiently recovers europium from old fluorescent lamps. The approach could lead to the long-awaited recycling of rare earth metals. A small molecule that naturally serves [...]
Cambridge Study: AI Chatbots Have an “Empathy Gap,” and It Could Be Dangerous
A new study suggests a framework for “Child Safe AI” in response to recent incidents showing that many children perceive chatbots as quasi-human and reliable. A study has indicated that AI chatbots often exhibit [...]
Nanoparticle-based delivery system could offer treatment for diabetics with rare insulin allergy
Up to 3% of people with diabetes have an allergic reaction to insulin. A team at Forschungszentrum Jülich has now studied a method that could be used to deliver the active substance into the [...]
Nanorobot kills cancer cells in mice with hidden weapon
Researchers at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden have developed nanorobots that kill cancer cells in mice. The robot's weapon is hidden in a nanostructure and is exposed only in the tumor microenvironment, sparing healthy cells. [...]